Brawl in the Bundesliga

By: Chris | March 27th, 2008

I was trying to come up with a WWE-esque title for this post, which really is about the chase for 2 of the 3 Champions League spots in the Bundesliga. I am not conceding the title to Bayern Munich by any stretch, but it will take a collapse of 1964 Phillies/2007 Mets proportion for the Bavarians not to at least make it back to the CL. Here’s how the Bundesliga table looks heading into matchday 26 (28 March - 30 March):

The top 2 finishers get the Bundesliga’s guaranteed places in the Champions League group stage; 3rd place gets a place in the Champions League qualifying round. 4th and 5th places are guaranteed group places in the UEFA Cup, and 6th place is shit-outta-luck. For the sake of brevity, we’re going to exclude Bayern (for reasons described previously) and Stuttgart from our discussions (I mean, c’mon, look at Stuttgart–they’re freaking Helter Skelter this year. What’s that say about the state of the B’liga last year?). If the season ended last week, HSV are in. Ah, but what’s that you say? There’s still some football to be played? Oh yeah, that old chestnut. Let’s take a closer look at each teams remaining matches:

Quick analysis: Nobody plays Bayern. Hamburg and Leverkusen appear to have an edge with 5 home matches.

Deeper analysis:

-Hamburg have 2 potential 6-point matches remaining (Schalke, Bremen) and both are at home. HSV have 4 matches (2 home, 2 away) with teams in the bottom 5 of the table.

-Leverkusen have 1 potential 6-pointer, with Bremen, at home. They have 3 remaining matches with teams in the bottom 5 (all away). Leverkusen are also still alive in the UEFA Cup.

-Bremen have 3 potential 6-point matches remaining, 2 on the road. They have 3 remaining matches with teams in the bottom 5 (2 home, 1 away).

-Schalke have 2 potential 6-pointers remaining, both on the road. They have 4 matches against the bottom feeders (2 home, 2 away). Schalke are also still alive in the Champions League.

Final thoughts:

I think that Hamburg have the most favorable schedule of the 4 clubs in contention, and I am going out on a limb and saying they will at least grab the 3rd CL spot, with second a very real possibility. They absolutely have to bag six points from the Schalke and Bremen matches. Bremen have the best opportunity to distance themselves from the pack with matches against all of the other 3 clubs in contention, but I don’t know where they will stand in all this in the end–could be second, could be fifth. I wonder about the demands that the UEFA Cup and Champions League matches will place on Leverkusen and Schalke, respectively. You can probably pencil Leverkusen through to the UEFA Cup semis (they drew Zenit St. Petersburg in the quarters), where they would potentially meet Bayern, meaning another 4 games not in this analysis. But I think their remaining schedule gets them to at least the CL qualifying spot (3rd place). Schalke drew Barcelona in the quarters and have a possibility of advancing the way Barca’s season has gone, but how likely is that? Not too sure, but Schalke do have the 2 games with Barcelona in there that I didn’t account for.

Why is this such a big deal? Well, clubs get €10M when they qualify for the group stages of the Champions League, and that would add quite nicely to the old war chest for some August transfers, and thus the urgency to secure one of the top 2 places in the table. Third place is OK, but you always run the risk of not qualifying for the group stages–kinda like Ajax this year.

Super SWAG Prediction-Final Bundesliga Standings (ought to be fun to look back and how much of a smart-ass or dumb-ass I really am):

1. Bayern Munich

2. Hamburger SV

3. Bayer Leverkusen

4. FC Schalke ‘04

5. Werder Bremen